There are three main reasons I am not optimistic about Mastodon: 1) it doesn't scale, technically. It is already struggling while still being ~3 orders of magnitude behind Twitter. 2) It's value proposition doesn't appeal to most users, on the contrary. Being federated will just mean "fragmented" to most people (if it wants to solve that, see 1). And 3) one of its core value propositions doesn't even make sense, namely that it could curb abuse. E-Mail is a good example of how little that works
@Merovius to me, if mastodon really gets popular, the decentralization will automatically suffer, since there is a limited amount of people willing and able to run _big_ mastodon instances and thus there will be probably very few, very big instances (one per cultural group most likely).
That the safety/user experience will always be sacrificed for freedom in a federated model has to be part of the trade-of, if in the future that might appeal to more people than today, I can not tell
.@mxk I don't believe anyone would run a big instance (much less a _big_ instance). There would be no way to pay for it, without becoming literally Twitter. Meaning, more likely, there will be lots of small, fragmented instances which lack a coherent whole (reducing the value proposition significantly). At the same time, lots of small instances equates to Spam and uncurbed abuse, as in E-Mail.
@Merovius and keep in mind, that even today Twitter is not really mainstream and does only appeal to a fraction of people compared to Facebook
@mxk Twitter has ~300M MAUs. Calling it "not really mainstream" is kind of understating things and downplaying the technical and social challenges of "replacing" it. It is smaller than Facebook, yes, but it definitely is mainstream (and enormous). And to be attractive, even to me, a nerd with inherent interest in FOSS, as a *replacement* for Twitter, Mastodon would need to be just as mainstream.
@mxk That's the crux of the matter; the majority of interactions I have on Twitter are with people I don't really see joining Mastodon anytime soon; yet they are a very valuable part of my social network. Fragmenting between these two is not only personally annoying; it ultimately is worse for the world, because it will actively create filterbubbles. There is no way to cross-pollinate between the two
.@mxk (and, while we're at it: Cross-pollination between groups is pretty much *the* value proposition of Twitter. Without being able to scale e.g. hashtags *globally* through the network, I don't really see a lot of chance or even a *point* for Mastodon…)
@Merovius may we have a place where decentralization and diversity have priority over automated net nannies? I'd even drop some privacy for that.
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