There are three main reasons I am not optimistic about Mastodon: 1) it doesn't scale, technically. It is already struggling while still being ~3 orders of magnitude behind Twitter. 2) It's value proposition doesn't appeal to most users, on the contrary. Being federated will just mean "fragmented" to most people (if it wants to solve that, see 1). And 3) one of its core value propositions doesn't even make sense, namely that it could curb abuse. E-Mail is a good example of how little that works
.@mxk I don't believe anyone would run a big instance (much less a _big_ instance). There would be no way to pay for it, without becoming literally Twitter. Meaning, more likely, there will be lots of small, fragmented instances which lack a coherent whole (reducing the value proposition significantly). At the same time, lots of small instances equates to Spam and uncurbed abuse, as in E-Mail.
chaos.social – a Fediverse instance for & by the Chaos community