US politics 

I'm getting rather different vibes from these two polls…

A POLITICO/Morning Consult survey found "70 percent of Republicans now say they don’t believe the 2020 election was free and fair".

politico.com/news/2020/11/09/r

But a Reuters poll found "nearly 80% of Americans, including more than half of Republicans, recognize President-elect Joe Biden as the winner". Only "3% said Trump won".

uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-

US politics 

@peter There's a supposed phenomenon where people give socially desirable answers when polled over the phone. It might even explain why the American elections were very close, instead of a straightforward win for Biden as the polls predicted.

People might genuinely FEEL Trump should've won, but realize the social consequences of expressing that out loud.

US politics 

@michiel Yeah… It was interesting that before the election the pollsters were denying there was evidence for the "shy republican" effect and saying if that was the case then they would have seen a significant difference with the online polls:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/t

But they got it pretty wrong again didn't they… Maybe the answer is that we still feel some social pressure with online polls too, as opposed to the answer being that both polling methods provide an accurate picture 🤔

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US politics 

@peter
Everyone has something to hide. The shy Tory (UK Conservative) /Republican voter demonstrates this. Secrets aren't always crimes but they can contain reputational damage. Which can make those secrets leverage. Thinking about this more I think that you can use this as an argument for privacy and encryption of data. People fear the consequences of judgement of people in their community. They don't want to feel uncomfortable and judged.
@michiel

US politics 

@onepict @peter @michiel

In the book Dataclysm, he writes about how people are most honest with their search engine, vs. polling or even friends. The majority of people would not admit to being racist if asked, but then he shows how google searches for racist jokes had huge spikes timed with the Obama election... so it would be interesting to know what insights Big Search has into all this...

and I'm sure they're maximizing their profits with it, whoever they're selling it to...

US politics 

@float13 @onepict @peter @michiel How does POLITICO/Morning Consult define "Republicans", though? Republicans being ~1/3 of "Americans" from the Reuters poll would allow both polls to be accurate.

US politics 

@ondra
Not sure as I'm not American or a political scientist. But in the case of the UK I'd say Right Wing Capitalists who don't believe I. Human rights for most of the population. I'm kinda biased though.
@float13 @peter @michiel

US politics 

@onepict @peter That's an interesting connection. I wonder if people with more authoritarian belief systems are more likely to be "shy", precisely because their desire to conform is stronger.

When talking to people who "have nothing to hide", I try to get politics and identity out of the way. I talk about singing in the shower. Or watching terrible reality tv. A manuscript for a novel that will never be published.

US politics 

@michiel
Those are great examples to explain about the risks. Did you ever see Last Week tonight's interview with Snowden? That was a rather NSFW example. So it's nice to have other examples to use.
@peter

US politics 

@michiel
That is an interesting thought though with the desire to outwardly conform though, as well as the desire to protect the status quo.
@peter

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